Incorporation of conceptual and parametric uncertainty into radionuclide flux estimates from a fractured granite rock mass   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Donald M. Reeves  Karl F. Pohlmann  Greg M. Pohll  Ming Ye  Jenny B. Chapman 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(6):899-915

Detailed numerical flow and radionuclide simulations are used to predict the flux of radionuclides from three underground nuclear tests located in the Climax granite stock on the Nevada Test Site. The numerical modeling approach consists of both a regional-scale and local-scale flow model. The regional-scale model incorporates conceptual model uncertainty through the inclusion of five models of hydrostratigraphy and five models describing recharge processes for a total of 25 hydrostratigraphic–recharge combinations. Uncertainty from each of the 25 models is propagated to the local-scale model through constant head boundary conditions that transfer hydraulic gradients and flow patterns from each of the model alternatives in the vicinity of the Climax stock, a fluid flux calibration target, and model weights that describe the plausibility of each conceptual model. The local-scale model utilizes an upscaled discrete fracture network methodology where fluid flow and radionuclides are restricted to an interconnected network of fracture zones mapped onto a continuum grid. Standard Monte Carlo techniques are used to generate 200 random fracture zone networks for each of the 25 conceptual models for a total of 5,000 local-scale flow and transport realizations. Parameters of the fracture zone networks are based on statistical analysis of site-specific fracture data, with the exclusion of fracture density, which was calibrated to match the amount of fluid flux simulated through the Climax stock by the regional-scale models. Radionuclide transport is simulated according to a random walk particle method that tracks particle trajectories through the fracture continuum flow fields according to advection, dispersion and diffusional mass exchange between fractures and matrix. The breakthrough of a conservative radionuclide with a long half-life is used to evaluate the influence of conceptual and parametric uncertainty on radionuclide mass flux estimates. The fluid flux calibration target was found to correlate with fracture density, and particle breakthroughs were generally found to increase with increases in fracture density. Boundary conditions extrapolated from the regional-scale model exerted a secondary influence on radionuclide breakthrough for models with equal fracture density. The incorporation of weights into radionuclide flux estimates resulted in both noise about the original (unweighted) mass flux curves and decreases in the variance and expected value of radionuclide mass flux.  相似文献   

Conduit margin heating and deformation during the AD 1886 basaltic Plinian eruption at Tarawera volcano,New Zealand     

Jenny Schauroth  Fabian B. Wadsworth  Ben Kennedy  Felix W. von Aulock  Yan Lavallée  David E. Damby  Jérémie Vasseur  Bettina Scheu  Donald B. Dingwell 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2016,78(2):12

  相似文献   

Late quaternary sea‐level changes,crustal movements and coastal evolution in Northumberland,UK     

Ian Shennan  Ben Horton  Jim Innes  Roland Gehrels  Jerry Lloyd  Jenny McArthur  Mairead Rutherford 《第四纪科学杂志》2000,15(3):215-237

Northumberland lies in the transition between Holocene emergence and submergence and is thus a critical zone for testing models of isostatic rebound. We have collected data from this area to reconstruct relative sea‐level changes and lateral coastline movements for the last 14000 y. These are deposits from tidal marsh, back‐barrier wetland and terrestrial environments producing 47 sea‐level index points from 12 sites. There is no unequivocal evidence for Late Devensian sea levels above present and the reliable sea‐level index points are restricted between −6 m and +2.5 m relative to present and 9.0–2.5 kyr cal. BP. Analysis of these quantifies differential responses to glacio‐ and hydroisostatic rebound, with the northern sites recording a mid‐Holocene sea‐level maximum ca. 2.5 m above present, whereas the southern sites show a maximum ca. 0.5 m above present. These observations show a reasonable fit with the predictions from quantitative models of glacio and hydroisostatic rebound, but there is currently no unique solution of Earth and ice model parameters that will explain all the sea‐level observations. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The role of innovation in advancing understanding of hydrological processes     

Louise J. Bracken  Ladan Cockshut  Jenny Taylor  Sarah Cotterill 《水文研究》2020,34(23):4404-4416

Innovation and understanding hydrological processes are intimately linked. Existing research has demonstrated the role of technological, societal, and political drivers in shaping and delivering new understandings in hydrological processes. In this paper we pose three research questions to explore how innovation can further our understanding of hydrological processes, if working towards the sustainable development goals (SDGs) provides a helpful focus, and whether specific mechanisms can be used to facilitate innovation and research into hydrological processes. First, we examine key aspects of innovation and explore innovation in the context of water security. We then present a series of innovation projects to determine their effectiveness in delivering innovation in managing hydrological processes, but also their contribution to scientific understanding. Our research suggests that product and process innovation were more closely related to increasing scientific understanding of hydrological processes than other forms of innovation. The NE Water Hub demonstrated that the design of the innovation ecosystem was crucial to its success and provides a model to integrate innovation and research more widely to further scientific understanding and deliver behaviour change to address the SDGs.  相似文献   

Gaps,Intellectual Enthusiasms,Personal Insecurities: Response to “Stages on Journeys”     

Jenny Robinson 《The Professional geographer》1999,51(3):452-458

  相似文献   

A risk assessment approach to contaminants in Port Curtis, Queensland, Australia     

Jones MA  Stauber J  Apte S  Simpson S  Vicente-Beckett V  Johnson R  Duivenvoorden L 《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,51(1-4):448-458

Port Curtis is one of Australia's leading ports for which substantial industrial expansion is proposed over the next decade. However, there has been little attempt to date to assess the extent of contamination in waters, sediments and biota or to characterize the potential impacts of contaminants on aquatic biota. Contaminants of potential concern to biota and human health were investigated in the Port Curtis estuary using a screening-level risk assessment approach. Dissolved metal concentrations in waters were below [ANZECC/ARMCANZ, 2000. Australian and New Zealand Guidelines for Fresh and Marine Water Quality, Vol. 1. The Guidelines, Australian and New Zealand Environment and Conservation Council and Agriculture and Resource Management Council of Australia and New Zealand] trigger values, suggesting low risk of these contaminants. In sediments, arsenic, nickel and chromium concentrations exceeded interim sediment quality guidelines-low (ISQG-low), but were also high in the reference zone suggesting a natural origin. Historical data on naphthalene in Harbour sediments showed that it was also of potential concern. Bioaccumulation of contaminants in a range of biota was also used as an indicator of contaminant exposure. Biota were generally enriched in metals and tributyltin, which was also elevated in water and sediments. Although not unique to Port Curtis, mercury in barramundi was identified as a potential risk to human health.  相似文献   

‘I’ve paid to observe lions, not map roads!’ – An emotional journey with conservation volunteers in South Africa     

Jenny A. Cousins  James Evans  Jon P. Sadler 《Geoforum》2009,40(6):1069-1080

As fundamental as emotions may be in our experiences with wildlife, very little research addresses this topic. The following paper provides insight into the emotional responses of conservation volunteers participating on conservation holidays through four ethnographic case-studies. Six common emotional responses were identified: anguish, disappointment, frustration, exhilaration, awe and compassion. These emotional highs and lows shaped the volunteer experience, as the realities of wildlife conservation in South Africa upset the culturally constructed, emotionally appealing vision of African wilderness that the volunteers expected. While the positive emotions associated with idealised expectations of African wildlife provide an ideal basis upon which to commercialise nature conservation, they generate a series of tensions in practice. The paper makes an important empirical contribution to current debates surrounding the economic exploitation of affect, showing how emotions underpin the commercialisation of conservation, both through the configuration of the volunteers’ wildlife experiences and the scope of conservation that is practised.  相似文献   

Asian monsoon climate during the Last Glacial Maximum: palaeo‐data–model comparisons     

Akkaneewut Chabangborn  Jenny Brandefelt  Barbara Wohlfarth 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2014,43(1):220-242

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (23–19 ka BP) in the Asian monsoon region is generally described as cool and dry, due to a strong winter monsoon. More recently, however, palaeo‐data and climate model simulations have argued for a more variable LGM Asian monsoon climate with distinct regional differences. We compiled, evaluated, and partly re‐assessed proxy records for the Asian monsoon region in terms of wet/dry climatic conditions based on precipitation and effective moisture, and of sea surface temperatures. The comparison of the palaeo‐data set to LGM simulations by the Climate Community System Model version 3 (CCSM3) shows fairly good agreement: a dry LGM climate in the western and northern part due to a strengthened winter monsoon and/or strengthened westerly winds and wetter conditions in equatorial areas, due to a stronger summer monsoon. Data–model discrepancies are seen in some areas and are ascribed to the fairly coarse resolution of CCSM3 and/or to uncertainties in the reconstructions. Differences are also observed between the reconstructed and simulated northern boundaries of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The reconstructions estimate a more southern position over southern India and the Bay of Bengal, whereas CCSM3 simulates a more northern position. In Indochina, the opposite is the case. The palaeo‐data indicate that climatic conditions changed around 20–19 ka BP, with some regions receiving higher precipitation and some experiencing drier conditions, which would imply a distinct shift in summer monsoon intensity. This shift was probably triggered by the late LGM sea‐level rise, which led to changes in atmosphere–ocean interactions in the Indian Ocean. The overall good correspondence between reconstructions and CCSM3 suggests that CCSM3 simulates LGM climate conditions over subtropical and tropical areas fairly well. The few high‐resolution qualitative and quantitative palaeo‐records available for the large Asian monsoon region make reconstructions however still uncertain.  相似文献   

Characterization of marine debris in North Carolina salt marshes     

Viehman S  Vander Pluym JL  Schellinger J 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(12):2771-2779

Marine debris composition, density, abundance, and accumulation were evaluated in salt marshes in Carteret County, North Carolina seasonally between 2007 and 2009. We assessed relationships between human use patterns and debris type. Wave effects on marine debris density were examined using a GIS-based forecasting tool. We assessed the influence of site wave exposure, period, and height on debris quantity. Presence and abundance of debris were related to wave exposure, vegetation type and proximity of the strata to human population and human use patterns. Plastic pieces accounted for the majority of all debris. Small debris (0–5 cm) was primarily composed of foam pieces and was frequently affiliated with natural wrack. Large debris (>100 cm) was encountered in all marsh habitat types surveyed and was primarily composed of anthropogenic wood and derelict fishing gear. Marsh cleanup efforts should be targeted to specific habitat types or debris types to minimize further damage to sensitive habitats.  相似文献   

The formation and alteration of the Renazzo-like carbonaceous chondrites I: Implications of bulk-oxygen isotopic composition     

Devin L. Schrader  Ian A. Franchi  Richard C. Greenwood  Jenny M. Gibson 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2011,75(1):308-325

To better understand the role of aqueous alteration on the CR chondrite parent asteroid, a whole-rock oxygen isotopic study of 20 meteorites classified as Renazzo-like carbonaceous chondrites (CR) was conducted. The CR chondrites analyzed for their oxygen isotopes were Dhofar 1432, Elephant Moraine (EET) 87770, EET 92042, EET 96259, Gao-Guenie (b), Graves Nunataks (GRA) 95229, GRA 06100, Grosvenor Mountains (GRO) 95577, GRO 03116, LaPaz Ice Field (LAP) 02342, LAP 04720, Meteorite Hills (MET) 00426, North West Africa (NWA) 801, Pecora Escarpment (PCA) 91082, Queen Alexandra Range (QUE) 94603, QUE 99177, and Yamato-793495 (Y-793495). Three of the meteorites, Asuka-881595 (A-881595), GRA 98025, and MET 01017, were found not to be CR chondrites. The remaining samples concur petrographically and with the well-established oxygen-isotope mixing line for the CR chondrites. Their position along this mixing line is controlled both by the primary oxygen-isotopic composition of their individual components and their relative degree of aqueous alteration. Combined with literature data and that of this study, we recommend the slope for the CR-mixing line to be 0.70 ± 0.04 (2σ), with a δ¹⁷O-intercept of −2.23 ± 0.14 (2σ).Thin sections of Al Rais, Shi?r 033, Renazzo, and all but 3 samples analyzed for oxygen isotopes were studied petrographically. The abundance of individual components is heterogeneous among the CR chondrites, but FeO-poor chondrules and matrix are the most abundant constituents and therefore, dominate the whole-rock isotopic composition. The potential accreted ice abundance, physico-chemical conditions of aqueous alteration (e.g. temperature and composition of the fluid) and its duration control the degree of alteration of individual CR chondrites. Combined with literature data, we suggest that LAP 02342 was exposed to lower temperature fluid during alteration than GRA 95229. With only two falls, terrestrial alteration of the CR chondrites complicates the interpretation of their whole rock isotopic composition, particularly in the most aqueously altered samples, and those with relatively higher matrix abundances. We report that QUE 99177 is the isotopically lightest whole rock CR chondrite known (δ¹⁸O = −2.29‰, δ¹⁷O = −4.08‰), possibly due to isotopically light unaltered matrix; which shows that the anhydrous component of the CR chondrites is isotopically lighter than previously thought. Although it experienced aqueous alteration, QUE 99177 provides the best approximation of the pristine CR-chondrite parent body’s oxygen-isotopic composition, before aqueous alteration took place. Using this value as a new upper limit on the anhydrous component of the CR chondrites, water/rock ratios were recalculated and found to be higher than previously thought; ratios now range from 0.281 to 1.157. We also find that, according to their oxygen isotopes, a large number of CR chondrites appear to be minimally aqueously altered; although sample heterogeneity complicates this interpretation.  相似文献